Israel-Hamas War (and wider regional conflict)

Military operations in the Gaza Strip have continued with significant intensity throughout July 2026, despite a ceasefire agreement that was announced in October 2025. Reports indicate ongoing airstrikes and ground engagements, contributing to a devastating humanitarian crisis across the enclave. The cumulative death toll in Gaza since October 2023 has tragically surpassed 73,000, with approximately 80% of these fatalities being civilians. An additional 173,000 Gazans have been wounded during this period, with injuries often mirroring those sustained by professional soldiers in intense combat scenarios. A critical aspect of the ongoing conflict is the continued expansion of control by one of the primary belligerents. As of June 2026, over 70% of the Gaza Strip is reported to be under the control of one party, a significant increase from the initial withdrawal which left over 50% under its control. This expansion is often marked by the shifting of a "yellow line" demarcation westward, effectively shrinking the safe zones for the Palestinian population and leading to numerous fatalities, including instances of sniper fire targeting civilians, even children, in queues for food. The humanitarian situation remains dire, characterized by widespread forced displacement, severe hunger, and the systematic destruction of infrastructure. Approximately 1.9 million people are internally displaced, facing overcrowded and inadequate shelters, often in tents without proper protection. Access to essential services is severely degraded, with the health sector particularly impacted. Sexual and reproductive health indicators have deteriorated significantly, with nearly 4,000 miscarriage cases recorded in the first half of 2026, and over 57% of pregnant women suffering from anemia. Maternal morbidity rates have also surged. Hospitals and maternity centers have been targeted, and the largest fertility clinic in Gaza has been destroyed, raising concerns about long-term demographic impacts. Humanitarian aid efforts are severely hampered by restrictions on entry points and bans on international non-governmental organizations. The limited aid that does enter is insufficient to meet the overwhelming needs. Furthermore, critical shortages of fuel, lubricants, and spare parts are disrupting essential water and sanitation services, leading to a reduction in clean water production and distribution, and increasing the risk of sewage overflows and public health hazards. More than half of the fleet operated by a major international relief agency is non-operational due to these shortages. The operating environment for humanitarian agencies continues to deteriorate, with significant escalation in hostilities observed even within designated humanitarian areas. Facilities belonging to international organizations have been impacted by armed incidents, and humanitarian workers have faced interference and insecurity, including instances where armed personnel forcibly halted food distributions and assaulted truck drivers. Despite the ongoing conflict, there have been targeted military actions against specific militant groups. Reports indicate successful operations resulting in the elimination of a senior member of one militant group's general security apparatus in June, and the dismantling of a tunnel system hundreds of meters long within areas under control of one of the belligerents. Recent strikes in late July also targeted members of another militant group and a drone unit commander. These operations underscore a strategy of maintaining pressure on militant infrastructure and leadership while consolidating control over a buffer zone. The overall strategic situation in Gaza reflects a complex interplay of military objectives, humanitarian catastrophe, and a persistent struggle for control and influence.

The occupied West Bank has experienced a sharp escalation in violence during July 2026, with settler attacks becoming a predominant factor in Palestinian injuries. Data indicates that settler attacks now account for 55% of all Palestinian injuries in the West Bank in 2026, a significant increase from previous years. Fatalities linked to these attacks have already surpassed the total recorded for all of 2025, with at least 18 Palestinians killed by July 20, 2026. A particularly grave incident occurred on July 24, 2026, near Nablus, in the village of Tell. Dozens of settlers reportedly entered a Palestinian village and attacked homes. During the confrontation, a Palestinian villager reportedly seized an assault rifle, killing one armed settler and wounding four others. In the ensuing chaos, an officer from the military forces was also killed, possibly by friendly fire. The incident resulted in the deaths of four Palestinians, including the individual who seized the weapon, and three other villagers who were reportedly unarmed. This event triggered a wave of revenge attacks by settlers across the West Bank, involving arson, assaults, destruction of property, and forcible transfers. Military forces subsequently launched an operation across the West Bank, conducting raids, arrests, and imposing movement restrictions, including blocking roads and demolishing properties in various towns and villages. These actions are occurring amidst accelerated measures by authorities to legalize settlement outposts and establish new settlements, further entrenching annexation policies. Beyond the immediate conflict in the Palestinian territories, the wider Middle East is grappling with an intensifying regional conflict, primarily involving a major global power and a regional state. A brief pause in hostilities between these two powers ended abruptly on July 27, 2026, when the regional state launched multiple ballistic missiles at a military base belonging to the global power in Jordan. This act of aggression prompted retaliatory strikes by the global power and its allies against militias in Iraq. The global power is also enforcing a naval blockade against the regional state's ports in the Strait of Hormuz, deploying a significant naval presence to the region. This broader conflict has had direct impacts on several Arab states, with missiles and drones striking cities such as Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Doha, Dubai, and Manama, leading to significant economic costs and regional instability. Concurrently, the conflict between a regional state and a non-state armed group in Lebanon, which began in March 2026, continues despite a ceasefire agreed upon in June 2026. While the intensity of remote violence has reportedly decreased, exchanges of artillery and rockets persist, indicating that the ceasefire has not fully resolved hostilities. One of the belligerents continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon, and recent reports indicate an explosive drone launched by the non-state armed group targeted a military vehicle in southern Lebanon. An international human rights official has called for the occupying force to end its occupation and halt home demolitions in Lebanon, with ongoing talks between the involved parties regarding a framework deal for withdrawal and deployment of Lebanese military forces. However, the non-state armed group has rejected disarmament. These interconnected conflicts underscore a volatile and complex strategic environment across the Middle East, with significant humanitarian and geopolitical ramifications.

Significant diplomatic efforts are underway to address the ongoing conflict in Gaza, with recent progress reported in talks held in Cairo on July 30, 2026. These discussions, mediated by international partners, aim to advance the second phase of a comprehensive peace plan initially brokered by a major global power. The plan, authorized by a United Nations Security Council Resolution in November 2025, established the current ceasefire and outlined a roadmap for the future of Gaza. Key elements of the ongoing negotiations include the disarmament of the primary militant group in Gaza, the establishment of governance by a civilian Palestinian administration, the withdrawal of military forces from Gaza, and the deployment of an international stabilization force to maintain security. Reports suggest that the militant group is showing a willingness to "confine and store" its heavy weapons under a Palestinian body, rather than fully disarming and handing them over to the opposing force. This willingness marks a potential shift, though the full extent of disarmament, particularly regarding light weapons, remains a critical sticking point. The militant group is also seeking a commitment from the opposing force to end attacks on Gaza and withdraw its forces. Despite these reported advancements, skepticism remains regarding the militant group's full commitment to the terms of the agreement. A crucial development in the implementation of the peace plan is the recent approval by one of the belligerents' government for the entry of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) into Gaza. On July 26, 2026, the government's cabinet approved the deployment of the ISF, envisioning an initial contingent of up to 200 troops. This force is expected to comprise personnel from various nations, including Kosovo, Albania, Morocco, Kazakhstan, and Uganda. The ISF's mandate includes supporting humanitarian aid delivery, training a Palestinian police force, and monitoring the ceasefire. The government has stipulated that it will retain the authority to approve which countries contribute forces to the ISF. The ISF is intended to operate in areas of the Gaza Strip that are not under the direct military control of one of the belligerents, aiming to provide a new model of governance, security, and economic opportunity. The "Board of Peace" (BoP), established to oversee the implementation of the peace plan, has lauded the decision to deploy the ISF, emphasizing its critical role in scaling humanitarian services and reconstruction efforts. The BoP, which held its inaugural meeting in Washington in February 2026, has already pledged a substantial $17 billion for reconstruction in Gaza. However, concerns have been raised about potential bias in the peace and reconstruction process, particularly given the composition and influence within the BoP. In broader political developments, a major regional power's elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026. The ongoing conflicts and humanitarian crises are likely to be significant issues in the electoral campaign. Internationally, there is growing pressure for a resolution, with calls from some nations for the broad recognition of a Palestinian state and its full membership in the United Nations. Some European countries have also taken steps to ban trade in goods originating from settlements, reflecting a commitment to international law. These diplomatic and political maneuvers highlight the complex, multi-faceted approach being taken to navigate the protracted conflict and its regional implications.